[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190939
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN/CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 510...

VALID 190939Z - 191045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 510 CONTINUES.

AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO LOCATED
OVER SRN IL INTO SERN MO...WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS HAVING
ACCELERATED TO 50-60 KT DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS.  THIS BOW WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A LIKELY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
SRN IND...AND WRN AND CENTRAL KY.  IN ADDITION...RECENT ANALYSIS OF
SEVERAL WSR-88DS ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATED A STRONG...BROAD WLY
REAR-INFLOW JET /60-80 KT FROM 2500-4500 FT AGL/ WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE AS THE BOW MOVES QUICKLY
EWD.

THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS...WHILE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET ADVANCES FROM SRN MO INTO KY
THIS MORNING SUSTAINING THIS STORM SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
200-400 M2/S2...GIVEN VERTICALLY VEERING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36489070 37219042 37728921 38028895 38448901 38578786
            38328491 36738492 36568506 36478814 36368962 36489070



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