[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190041
KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-190215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...CNTRL AND SRN MO...NRN AR..

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 190041Z - 190215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
CONTINUES.

A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 506 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA...WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  THIS
INCLUDES SUPERCELLS...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR BENEATH 30 KT WESTERLY 500
MB FLOW.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING NORTHEASTWARD AND
EASTWARD...SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE
OZARKS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS SIMILARLY LARGE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.  THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RATHER
BROAD/DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

AIDED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...INCREASING AND
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.
THE PRIMARY CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...PERHAPS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL.

..KERR.. 06/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37419712 37999621 38689478 38939401 38859273 38879126
            38549024 36978929 35978973 35709012 35939161 36209296
            36349391 36599506 36509665 36879711 37419712



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