[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181821
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...WRN NC...NWRN SC...SERN TN...AND NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 181821Z - 181945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
WRN NC...SWRN NC...SERN TN AND NRN GA. ALSO...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP EAST OF WW 500 INTO SWRN VA AND FARTHER
EWD THROUGH WRN NC. COUNTIES IN GSP CWA CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AS
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE FOR SWRN VA AND NWRN NC
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN VA INTO EXTREME WRN NC CONTINUES ESEWD AT
AROUND 30 KT. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS
IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM
WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 ACROSS WRN NC INTO SWRN VA. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM FURTHER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND
THIS COULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE EAST
OF CURRENT WW. VWP DATA FROM MORRISTOWN TN SHOWS A 50 KT WLY REAR
INFLOW JET IN WAKE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SWRN VA AND EXTREME NWRN
NC WITH RADAR SIGNATURES SHOWING A SLIGHT BOWING CONFIGURATION AND
ROTATING COMMA HEAD. IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR RNK CWA.

OTHERWISE...OTHER SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF WW
500 INCLUDING SERN TN AND NRN GA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35338525 35268433 35358327 35658241 36188178 37058130
            37098008 36048043 34688175 34058367 34078508 34638551
            35338525



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