[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181338
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-181515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...SWRN NC AND NWRN
SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181338Z - 181515Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA AND SWRN NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

EXPANSIVE MCS FROM THE TN/KY BORDER WWD TO SERN MO IS MOVING SSEWD
AT 25 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM
NASHVILLE...BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA INDICATED 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION. AS
LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THROUGH THE
80S...LITTLE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS RATHER MODEST...BUT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35988751 36088599 36608371 36388266 35448208 34658257
            33878433 33698667 34418874 35598957 36308916 35988751



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