[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131406
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / FAR SRN IL / FAR WRN KY / FAR WRN TN /
NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131406Z - 131500Z

AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM WW 471 ACROSS SERN MO AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NERN AR AND WRN TN.  A WW IS POSSIBLE.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS MO MOVING IN A
GENERALLY ESE DIRECTION TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF PLAINS EML WITHIN A NW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT.  ADVECTION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER
THIS REGION IS MAINTAINING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AS LOW LEVEL
WWA/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT REGENERATIVE STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MO OZARKS.  12Z SGF/LZK RAOBS EXHIBITED GREATER CAPE
/3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE/ THAN DEPICTED IN 06Z MODELS AND OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.  PW/S OF 1.5 INCH...SURFACE TD/S NEAR 70 DEG F...ACROSS
THE OZARKS ARE FEEDING THE STORMS FROM THE SW AND WILL LIKELY SERVE
TO SUSTAIN STORM INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO THE S OF THE ONGOING STORM COMPLEX MAY GRADUALLY SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS DURING THE
DAY...WITH AN INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TIME...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 06/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36359242 36989127 37678993 37508915 36758882 35988897
            35458940 35139011 35049116 35239167 36359242


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