[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112157
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-112300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112157Z - 112300Z

STRONG-MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR AND INTO SERN MO. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT...AS THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED /MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES HEATED INTO THE LOW-MID
90S. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ AND PWAT
VALUES NEARING 1.7 INCH HAVE SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS...WITH TWO ONGOING CLUSTERS CURRENTLY NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK /NEAR 20
KTS/...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A
WEAKLY INHIBITED AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE E/SE. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
/SOME APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SVR LIMITS AT TIMES/. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WITH
OUTFLOW/CELL INTERACTIONS...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL FLOW.

..ROGERS.. 06/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34399231 34889072 36088970 36638939 36848989 36619172
            35989358 35659531 35419581 34719556 34249399 34399231



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