[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052145
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN...SWRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430...

VALID 052145Z - 052245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINING SECTIONS OF WW430 AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 22Z.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION SUGGEST THAT THE
MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH ORIGINATED IN THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION...IS CONFINED TO PRIMARILY ERN TN. WHILE A RATHER
HORIZONTALLY EXTENSIVE COLD POOL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THE STRONGER STORM-SCALE ASCENT...AUGMENTED BY SOMEWHAT
GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...IS CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. IN THIS REGION...SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
PRESENT -- I.E. 20-25 KT OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 4-5-KM-LAYER AGL PER
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG VWP. AS SUCH...THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TN
COULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT CROSSES INTO SWRN NC...WRN SC...AND NRN
GA...THOUGH OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST DECREASING ORGANIZATION DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...WITH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-30F SUPPORTING
DMGG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EVOLVE FROM A
REINVIGORATED COLD POOL...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

FARTHER WEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS S-CNTRL TN AND
NRN AL...SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE TO
FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...MORE SHALLOW COLD POOL ASCENT OWING TO
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT
WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT.

..COHEN.. 06/05/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33618395 33388539 33638712 34288768 35138743 35338631
            35468504 35688408 35478331 35008281 34188286 33618395

WWWW
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