[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012035
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-012200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...ERN TN...ERN KY...WRN VA...SRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012035Z - 012200Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WV AND ERN KY ON THE
NWRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS WRN NC WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH THE
STORMS ARE LOCATED IN A RELATIVELY WEAK-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 7.5
TO 8.0 C/KM WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE BUT THESE THREATS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   34978283 35588115 36517994 37737939 38168006 38258105
            38028265 37308342 35328361 34978283


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