[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301735
ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...ERN OK...FAR SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301735Z - 301900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...ERN OK AND FAR SERN KS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER ERN KS AND
CNTRL MO HAS BEEN FOCUSED AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ALONG/N OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S...WHICH
HAS AIDED IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. IN
ADDITION...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG AT 17Z.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM ERN KS ACROSS CNTRL MO...AS
WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN MO...ERN OK AND NRN AR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE HOT SURFACE AIRMASS/STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.

..GARNER.. 07/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37878946 35558995 34849269 34679590 35619664 37039606
            38419256 38609032 37878946


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