[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242155
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...WRN KY...WRN TN...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242155Z - 250000Z

WET MICROBURSTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWD-PROPAGATING BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ARCING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SRN IL INTO SERN MO.
HALF-DEGREE REFLECTIVITY PER PADUCAH WSR-88D DATA SUGGESTS ATTENDANT
OUTFLOW SURGING AHEAD OF PARENT CONVECTION...INDICATING THE
COLD-POOL-DOMINANT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM /DUE TO THE MEAGER AMOUNT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/. REGARDLESS...THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES OF
2.10 TO 2.25 INCHES PER GPS DATA. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SWD
PROPAGATION INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION...AS UNSTABLE PARCELS ARE
LIFTED TO THEIR LFC/S BY THE SURGING COLD POOL TO FOSTER
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION. THE COLD POOL IS WELL MANIFESTED IN RECENT
MESOANALYSIS...WITH A 1017-MB MESOHIGH OVER SRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC PRESSURE RISES UP TO 4 MB IN 2 HRS. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NE/SW-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER COLD POOL FORCING.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE HAZARDS...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS.
DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THE
ABSENCE OF GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND KEEP THE SVR THREAT ISOLATED. ALSO...GIVEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH
ANY BOUNDARIES THAT BECOME STATIONARY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
TRAINING. THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER 01Z AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SUPPORTS STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..COHEN.. 07/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37549071 37318988 37308837 37678757 37508680 36428710
            35368795 35098933 35459060 36509098 37549071


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