[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 130005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130004
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130004Z - 130130Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IND MAY PROPAGATE S-SEWD INTO
WRN KY AND PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THOUGH
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 00Z SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES SE OF THE MO/IL
ACTIVITY...WHERE TEMPERATURES STILL RESIDE IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 70S...AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE STORMS OVER MO/IL WILL PROPAGATE S-SEWD INTO THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. ATTM...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM A COLD
POOL AND DEVELOP INTO AN MCS...THE WIND THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED AND
A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER.. 07/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36939070 37679053 37498767 37208664 36068553 35118639
            35188842 36018997 36939070


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