[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121718
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121718Z - 121845Z

ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF TN/KY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DECAYING EARLY DAY TSTM COMPLEX...A
WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
QUASI-FOCUSED UPLIFT/CONVECTIVE REGENERATION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF KY/TN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION/BOUNDARY PROPAGATION INTO A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...WITH
MLCAPE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG AMID
NEGLIGIBLE CINH. A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AS NOTED BY REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MICROBURST POTENTIAL...WHILE ALSO YIELDING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN FLOW.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35118743 35948746 37868665 38448392 36658480 35158573
            35118743



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