[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 080620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080620
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-080815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...NERN AR...EXTREME NRN MS...MO
BOOT-HEEL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...

VALID 080620Z - 080815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609
CONTINUES.

PRIMARY REMAINING THREAT MAY BE IN FORM OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH
2 INCH/HOUR RATES LIKELY IN HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL
PARTICIPATE IN TRAIN-ECHO CONFIGURATIONS TO EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.

AS FOR SVR...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR PSBL WW FARTHER E AND SE...HOWEVER
CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE OTHERWISE.  THREAT APPEARS TO BE GETTING
LESS WELL-ORGANIZED AS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES INTO LOWER-THETAE
AIR MASS...AND AS GUST FRONT SURGES AHEAD OF WEAKENING
REFLECTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY/INITIAL COMPLEX.  IN ITS
WAKE...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED EVAPORATIONAL
CONTRIBUTION TO COLD-POOL INTENSITY.  ACCORDINGLY...ISALLOBARIC
CHART SHOWS ONLY MODEST RISES.  WITHOUT MORE ROBUST COLD-POOL
EVOLUTION...PROSPECTS FOR WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT
DOWNSHEAR APPEAR MRGL/CONDITIONAL AT MOST. THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SVR HOWEVER.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN AR WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOTH
1. FOR ANY PARCELS THAT CAN BE LIFTED FROM NEAR SFC WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN 70S F...AND
2. FROM 30-KT WSWLY LLJ EMANATING FROM REGION OF ROUGHLY 2-INCH PW
INDICATED BY GPS MEASUREMENTS OVER CENTRAL AR.

..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36549194 36548896 36238830 35918812 34918841 34759013
            35079120 36119169 36549194


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