[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280705
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN TN N/NEWD TO WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280705Z - 280730Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR NERN AR...WRN TN
N/NEWD TO WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND.

A STRONG SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS IS
MAINTAINING MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
QLCS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HALF OF IL TO NRN/WRN AR.  REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO FAST MOVING BOWS...1. OVER SERN IL AND 2.
OVER SERN MO WITH BOTH FEATURES TRACKING EWD AT 55-60 KT.  GIVEN
THESE FAST FORWARD SPEEDS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS...THESE BOWS WILL LIKELY EXIT WW 25 AND SRN EXTENT OF WW 27 BY
09Z AND 08Z RESPECTIVELY.

HEIGHT FALLS...ATTENDANT TO A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...1. OVER IL/IND AND 2. MOVING EWD ACROSS OK...WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND SUSTAIN THE
ONGOING QLCS AS IT ADVANCES EWD OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S...SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING AT LZK INDICATED A STRENGTHENING
CAP AROUND 850 MB SINCE 03Z.  ALTHOUGH THIS CAP MAY LIMIT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS/OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED.

..PETERS.. 02/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35259137 36629059 37908796 38638621 38618546 36738679
            35198843 35078923 35069102 35259137



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