[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272257
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...W KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272257Z - 280100Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  TSTMS
WILL INTENSIFY AROUND 00Z SRN MO/NRN AR AND EXPAND ENE 00-06Z WITH
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

100+ KT H5 JET WAS PUNCHING ACROSS W TX AND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
OZARKS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LEAD WAVE MIGRATING ENE THROUGH AR
AT THE MOMENT.  THIS LEAD IMPULSE MAY BE IMPETUS FOR GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER SRN MO/NRN AR BETWEEN 23-00Z...SIMILAR TO
18Z NAM AND 12Z WRF-ARW.  VENTILATION OF INITIAL CELLS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE BY MID-EVENING AS THE PARENT TROUGH APPROACHES.

THE CORRESPONDING INCREASING IN THE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS
WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW LCL/S AND POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL
STORMS TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE WILL POSE A STRONG TORNADO
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING
STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ENE INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY 06Z.
DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE
THREATS.

..RACY.. 02/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35869429 37049367 38009201 38349130 38689008 38558902
            38058854 37488793 37038809 36828856 36348998 35709124
            34989267 35089407 35869429



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