[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221902
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN GA / UPSTATE SC / FAR WRN NC /
SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221902Z - 222100Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 20-21 UTC.  THE RISK
FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1011 MB LOW INVOF BHM WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR NWRN GA AND INTO THE NC
SMOKY MTNS.  THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND S OF THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE IN PART TO A NWD FLUX OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE MOVING N/NEWD INTO THE AREA.  AN AREA OF MAXIMUM SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS /3.5 MB PER 2 HRS/ EXISTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
LOW INTO FAR NWRN GA.  KFFC VAD HAS SHOWN 1 KM FLOW INCREASE FROM
25-40 KTS THE PAST 3 HRS.  THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
MIGRATING NEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NRN
GULF COAST AS THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES FROM THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
DESPITE RATHER MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...GRADUAL THETA-E INCREASE WITH
TIME WILL SUPPORT 250-750 J/KG SBCAPE...SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD FEATURING 300-600 M2/S2
EFFECTIVE SRH PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL ORGANIZED AND ROTATING...LINEARLY
ORIENTED STORMS.  AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO WIND
DAMAGE...WILL EXIST WITH ANY MESOVORTICIES AND EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES.

..SMITH.. 12/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   34818551 35408357 35298279 32868268 32328300 32028406
            32038509 34818551



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