[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210735
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-210900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/NWRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210735Z - 210900Z

AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FROM THE CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NERN MS
INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN.  GIVEN THE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED STORMS DUE PRIMARILY TO
WEAK INSTABILITY...A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AT 0715Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN MS THROUGH W
CENTRAL TN INTO SRN IND...OR FROM 40 E GWO TO 55 E MKL TO 20 NW BMG.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN MO WITH
THE ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO AR.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...SOME HEIGHT FALLS AND MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED WITH ROTATIONAL
COUPLETS OVER NERN MS PER RADAR IMAGERY.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
SOME ORGANIZED STORMS....THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ALREADY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY LOW...GIVEN TIME OF DAY.  THUS...AS
INDICATED...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WILL
REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS FORECAST
IS ACROSS NERN MS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN AL AND TN WHERE SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
ACROSS THE ZONE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
DISCRETE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 12/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33568934 34458870 35128809 35698758 35608692 34058756
            33368815 33248902 33568934



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