[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232225
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-232330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ARK / SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232225Z - 232330Z

A FEW ISOLD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL/WIND DMG MAY OCCUR THRU DUSK OVER
SERN MO AND NERN ARK.  ISOLD COVERAGE/EXPECTED STORM INTENSITY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

LOW LEVEL SLYS W OF A RESIDUAL FRONT DRAPED FROM IL SWD INTO NERN MS
ARE WITHIN A RESERVOIR OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/.  THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ PER RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
WIND PROFILES ARE UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST...AND IS RESULTING IN
30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THIS MAY AID IN SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION.  CURRENT THINKING IS ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS POSING AN ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

..SMITH.. 08/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35859065 36149117 37189055 37269002 37068930 36568924
            35938983 35859065



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