[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 080126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080125
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MO...WRN TN...NERN OK...EXTREME WRN
KY...EXTREME SERN KS...SRN IL...NRN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739...740...

VALID 080125Z - 080330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
739...740...CONTINUES.

PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE IN FOR OF DAMAGING WIND...IN PROJECTED
SEWD PATH OF MOST INTENSE PORTION OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.
COMPLEX INITIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL MO IS MOVING SEWD ABOUT 40 KT
TOWARD NERN AR...MO BOOT-HEEL AND NWRN TN REGION.  THESE AREAS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MIXED SIGNALS EXIST IN PARAMETER SPACE REGARDING HOW FAR SE SVR
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH MCS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MLCINH STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SEWD EXTENT  DUE
LARGELY TO POCKETS OF RELATIVELY WEAK SFC THETAE ACROSS NERN
AR....WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD EXTENT
ACROSS SERN MO INTO AR AND TN.  HOWEVER...COLD POOL MAY BE
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED TO FORCE AREAS OF FAVORABLE
MOISTURE...I.E. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F OVER BOOT-HEEL REGION AND FAR
WRN KY...TO LFC...HELPING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST NRN/ERN PORTION OF
COMPLEX IN THAT DIRECTION.  PEAK GUST OF 59 KT WAS MEASURED AT UNO
AT 0054Z.  SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER W ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LESSENING AND BECOMING MORE CONDITIONAL WITH TIME...AS BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW/DISTANT FROM CAUSATIVE CONVECTION AND AIR MASS
ON WARM SIDE COOLS/STABILIZES DIABATICALLY.  WWS MAY BE CLEARED
BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...AND PERHAPS ALONG NON-CONVECTING WRN LIMB OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37229444 37079270 37029188 37829107 38239058 38088966
            37568890 37098846 36268840 35518883 35238976 35689136
            35949256 36979586 37229444



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