[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071846
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN MS...SW TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071846Z - 072045Z

ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL AR
AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD.  DISORGANIZED NATURE OF STORMS SUGGESTS A
WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AR.  A REMNANT MCV IS ALSO APPARENT IN THIS REGION.
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG.  AMBIENT STEERING
FLOW IS QUITE WEAK /GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND SLOW-MOVING.  HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SEVERE MICROBURST EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  FOR THESE
REASONS...WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK
UPDATE.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WINDS.

..HART.. 08/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34759272 35729128 35968974 35218905 34028954 33339059
            33119194 33249400 33999529 34689506 34439356 34759272


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