[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031726
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-031830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...NRN TN AND SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 721...

VALID 031726Z - 031830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 721
CONTINUES.

SPC RECOMMENDS MAINTAINING THE WRN AND SRN PARTS OF WW 721 AS
DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S THROUGH W OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  GREATEST POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN KY INTO NRN TN WHERE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

AT 17Z...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO
WARM...MARKING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE MCS ACROSS ERN
KY.  THE STRONGEST TSTM WAS LOCATED OVER WAYNE COUNTY KY ALONG THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A STRONGLY
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ATTENDANT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM NERN TN TO SCOTT
COUNTY TN AND THEN NWWD THROUGH CENTRAL KY TO MEADE COUNTY KY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SWRN OH
THROUGH SRN IND/IL TO SRN MO.  RICH MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE AIR MASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.8-2+ INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S/ ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES MID-UPPER 90S/ PER
CLEAR SKIES HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG S OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN TN.

TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF WNW-ESE
ORIENTED CONVECTION MOVING SWD FROM SRN IND INTO NRN KY...WITH
ADDITIONAL TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NELSON
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES KY.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A AN
APPROACHING CENTRAL IL WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...LOW LEVEL WAA...AND
FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS SUGGEST NEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY WRN KY INTO WRN/NRN TN.  STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ANY COLD POOL FORMATION WILL PROMOTE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  THE SCENARIO FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
SUPPORTED BY MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE 15Z EXPERIMENTAL
WRF-HRRR.

..PETERS.. 08/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   36868171 36248194 35948334 35928478 36038650 36168752
            36438852 36938867 37418866 37728745 37978544 38008493
            37308366 37228238 36868171


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