[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280122
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...IND...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...WRN WV...AND SWRN
VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 239...242...

VALID 280122Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 239...242...CONTINUES.

EARLY-MID EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO TRACK NEWD INTO SWRN IND ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN IND INTO NWRN OH.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TN
INTO MS...BISECTING MS GENERALLY FROM NE-SW.

CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH WW/S 239 AND 242 HAVE MITIGATED STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS ERN KY INTO SRN OH.  THIS
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ /50-70 KT/
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION/
DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN KY/SRN OH DESPITE THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING.  GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF KY INTO PARTS OF SRN OH GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.  HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER NW-N ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO IND WILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
TREAT DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY.  ISALLOBARIC EFFECT OF THE SURFACE
WINDS DUE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER IND INTO WRN KY SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND ESE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.

..PETERS.. 04/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...
OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   36678708 36968758 38198723 38688755 40138747 40948636
            40998434 41138354 40898241 40358222 39408238 39008280
            38708252 38598160 38158105 37988077 37368131 36748140
            36558171 36588489 36678708


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