[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271922
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...SERN KY...WRN VA/NC...SRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271922Z - 272045Z

PORTIONS OF ERN TN...SERN KY...WRN VA/NC AND SRN WV MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME INCREASE IN SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL AS UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHES
THE REGION. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A
WW WILL BE NEEDED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF MCS OVER
MIDDLE/SERN TN...WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN RESPONSE
TO THE HEATING...WHICH MAY AID IN MCS MAINTENANCE OR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT...ANY STORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA COULD BECOME SVR. HOWEVER...DUE TO ONLY MODEST
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WW N OF WW 231
WILL BE NECESSARY.

..GARNER.. 04/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON   35528193 35538466 36518483 37448408 37908225 36928060
            35528193



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