[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260405
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN IL...EXTREME SERN
MO...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY...WRN-MIDDLE TN...NERN LA...SERN
AR...NRN/WRN MS...NWRN AL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...207...

VALID 260405Z - 260600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206...207...CONTINUES.

SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FEATURES AND LEADING-EDGE
VORTICES POSSIBLE...WILL POSE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW QLCS TORNADOES AS IT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS LOWER
OH RIVER REGION AND ESPECIALLY WRN TN/NWRN MS.  WW 206 IS SCHEDULED
TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MORE OF
TN/KY/NRN MS AND PERHAPS NWRN AL BEFORE THAT TIME.

AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY...COMBINING WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
COLD POOL TO SUSTAIN MCS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
60-70 KT LLJ ALSO WILL AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT ABOVE
SFC...IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY
ATTM IS HOW FAR E DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS
REGION GIVEN STRENGTHENING NEAR-SFC STABILITY WITH TIME...DUE TO
DIABATIC COOLING...AND WITH EWD EXTENT...DUE TO LOWER-THETAE SFC
TRAJECTORIES.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW TO ALLOW DAMAGING GUSTS TO
PENETRATE TO SFC ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MS AND PERHAPS MIDDLE TN.
OBSERVED GUSTS AT OBSERVATION SITES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
SUBSEVERE...EXCEPT ONE MEASURED AT 50 KT AT BYH AT 337Z AND HIGHER
ESTIMATED GUSTS ACCORDING TO SPOTTER REPORTS.  DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND...WHERE
SUPPORTIVE MESOCIRCULATIONS CAN DEVELOP ON STORM SCALE...TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
SHV...

LAT...LON   33079259 33219190 33589142 34179062 34639025 35498975
            36028975 37038905 37608870 38118834 38028703 37438654
            36538662 35378703 34158790 33188896 32539132 33079259


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