[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242001
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN/S-CNTRL KY...FAR NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242001Z - 242130Z

TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/WRN KY WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NRN AR NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING
S OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S...WHICH IS REINFORCING TIGHT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN
ADDITION...CONTINUED INFLUX OF 60S DEWPOINTS IS AIDING IN ELONGATED
E-W ZONE OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF 30 KT S-SWLY LLJ EXIT REGION FOCUSED OVER THE FRONT AND MODERATE
W-SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FAVORING BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER SERN MO AND WRN KY. CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF CELLS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR.

MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER CELLS WILL
POSE A SVR WEATHER RISK. IN ADDITION...SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER NRN AR WILL APPROACH SERN MO/WRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER
THREAT.

..GARNER.. 04/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36878333 36168487 36318946 36828998 37238947 37628786
            37848407 36878333


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