[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241658
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241658Z - 241800Z

INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
THROUGH AFTERNOON IN NRN AR AND EXTREME SERN MO.  PROBABILITY OF
WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA 60
PERCENT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN AR HAVE BEEN ACHIEVING STRONGER
REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY VALUES LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE TAPPING
THE RECOVERING AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AR.  CONCERN IS THAT COMPLEX WILL
YIELD INCREASING BOWING CHARACTERISTICS WITH APEX RUNNING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT IN NCNTRL/NERN AR AND SERN MO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG WSW FLOW
IN THE H85-H5 LAYER AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST COLD POOL DYNAMICS...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SMALL-SCALE MESOVORTICIES WILL EVOLVE ALONG WITH THE HAIL THREAT.

..RACY.. 04/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34979382 35959334 37319027 36818943 35678997 34959184
            34979382


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