[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230220
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

VALID 230220Z - 230315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

SUPERCELLS THAT FORMED OVER CNTRL MO ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN
PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA...CROSSING THE MO RIVER ATTM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SRN IL. LATEST
SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER WRN IL...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IL
AND INTO SRN IN AND NRN KY. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. REGIONAL VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW CURVED
HODOGRAPHS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /25-35 KTS
0-1 KM AGL/.

WITH TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
BROKEN LINE /WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG
WINDS...THOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OBSERVED WITH A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..ROGERS.. 04/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   36488355 36909084 38919085 38498354 36488355


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