[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192324
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SERN MO...WRN KY...SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192324Z - 200030Z

THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH
155. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BY 00Z FOR ERN AR...SERN MO...WRN KY INTO SRN IL.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF
ST LOUIS SWWD THROUGH SWRN MO...NWRN AR INTO N-CNTRL TX WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF MINERAL WELLS. WARM SECTOR EAST
OF FRONT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONGER
FORCING FOR DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A MORE DOMINANT
LINEAR MODE...BUT CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT CURRENTLY PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE PRIMARY THREAT MAY
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   33839311 34549284 36939077 38148894 37808829 36868913
            33739148 33839311



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