[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152257
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/SERN MO/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL/WRN
KY/SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...143...

VALID 152257Z - 160100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142...143...CONTINUES.

SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW
142/143.  THREAT SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME COULD REQUIRE NEW WW INTO
PARTS OF ERN IL/SWRN INDIANA/MORE OF WRN KY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZING JUST
E OF THE MS RIVER INTO WRN IL...WITH LEWPS/BOWS AND SOME EMBEDDED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  A FEW CELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING/ACQUIRING ROTATION BEFORE MERGING WITH THE ORGANIZING
LINE.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE TWO EXISTING
WATCHES...WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF
WW 142...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THIS WATCH.

HOWEVER...WEAK -- BUT MARGINALLY-SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY EXTENDS
JUST EAST OF THE EXISTING WATCHES -- ACROSS ERN IL AND FAR WRN KY
TOWARD SWRN INDIANA/CENTRAL KY.  GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE...A NEW/NARROW WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED TO EXTEND E OF WW 142.

..GOSS.. 04/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...
MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   33849028 36109020 38049026 39869083 40529117 40869045
            40458838 39128634 37458596 35808700 33728750 33849028


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