[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152032
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO / WRN-SWRN IL / WRN KY / NERN AR / NWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...143...

VALID 152032Z - 152130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142...143...CONTINUES.

BROKEN LINE OF QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY MATURE/INTENSIFY
INVOF THE MS RIVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOCATED NEAR
OR W OF THE MS RIVER.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS/ ADVECTING NWD
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NWD TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR NEAR STL.  AMPLE SUNSHINE E OF THE BROKEN LINE IS
CONTRIBUTING A PRONOUNCED THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNING NNW-SSE
FROM W-CNTRL IL SSEWD TO THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE AND S ALONG THE
MS RIVER.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...COLD TEMPS
ALOFT /-20 TO -22 C AT H5/ SHOULD FOSTER HAIL GROWTH WITH THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS /200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ WILL PROBABLY ACT
TO FOSTER LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS.  THIS IS WHERE THE SEVERE RISK /INCLUDING TORNADO/
APPEARS GREATEST IN OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS AS STORMS ENCOUNTER THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

..SMITH.. 04/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   35999081 38309082 39899167 40249149 40059026 39478924
            37758873 36218902 35899012 35999081


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