[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150921
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-151045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR...CNTRL AND NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 139...

VALID 150921Z - 151045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 139 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 139 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

INFLOW INTO ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
STRONGEST ON IT SOUTHERN FLANK...NOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT MODERATE CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  IN THE PRESENCE OF A
SHEARED AND STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD...ON THE ORDER OF
40-50+ KT...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION THROUGH AND BEYOND DAYBREAK...EVEN AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.  AS A RESULT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ...PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES...SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME.

FARTHER NORTH...THE INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS RECENTLY
DIMINISHED AS IT APPROACHED THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY STILL
MAY PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 04/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32959143 33959087 34529026 35308970 36068952 36538803
            36238697 33038806 32478907 31739018 31439129 31549255
            31949282 32959143


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