[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150627
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...AR..THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN AR AND NW MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...

VALID 150627Z - 150800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 136 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD ...THOUGH
GENERALLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO IT...WHICH IS RESULTING IN A MORE
MODEST EASTWARD MOTION.  BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY WITH A SEGMENT LIKELY TO SURGE
THROUGH LITTLE ROCK BETWEEN 07-08Z.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY AT
LEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 09Z.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR JUST PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE 09-10Z...AS A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE ...PIVOTING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...LIFTS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.  AND...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY... AND
PERHAPS WITHIN THE LINE.

..KERR.. 04/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35459226 36339180 36308971 35258974 34069033 32639125
            31899320 32849386 34339292 35459226


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