[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120123
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-120300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TN...WRN NC...ERN AL...WRN GA AND
UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...132...

VALID 120123Z - 120300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131...132...CONTINUES.

STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE
IS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION...WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNING EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW FIELD IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED... INCLUDING 40-50 KT
AROUND 850 MB.  SO THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AS CONVECTION ENHANCES THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME...AND MAY
EXTEND FROM NEAR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC THROUGH ATHENS
GA...SOUTHWARD TOWARD DOTHAN AL...BY 04-05Z.

..KERR.. 04/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31168797 32058711 32998623 33918550 34738527 35988455
            35838184 34928222 33468344 31598487 31238557 30898713
            31168797



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