[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111944
MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY....SWRN VA...MUCH OF WV...SERN OH...WRN MD
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...

VALID 111944Z - 112045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129 CONTINUES.

THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS WW 129 MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

AT 19Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV TO ERN KY AND INTO
MIDDLE TN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AGITATED CU OVER WRN
WV FROM 10 ESE HTS TO 25 SSW PKB.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH YET FOR MUCH LIGHTNING PRODUCTION PER LATEST
LIGHTNING DATA.  DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN WW 129...WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  ANY TSTMS THAT
CAN FORM ON THE WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A STRONG
WIND GUST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS
TO BE WANING GIVEN A LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON   37638415 38478378 38328328 39528203 39688087 39737891
            38637962 38068078 37368139 37098181 36588163 36678513
            37638415


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