[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111737
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-111830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TN AND FAR NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 128...

VALID 111737Z - 111830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 128 CONTINUES.

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS ACROSS SWRN TN AND FAR NRN
MS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY
18Z.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WIND SHIFT ATTENDANT TO A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN KY SWWD THROUGH
MIDDLE TN AND WSWWD INTO FAR SWRN TN...ALONG AND S OF MEM.  ELY
SURFACE WINDS OVER WRN TN ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE MEM
WSR-88D VWP INDICATING SURFACE-1 KM VALUE CLOSE TO 40 KT AND 0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 375 M2/S2.  AT 1730Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL ORGANIZED STORM OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL AR APPROACHING MEM AT 45
KT FROM THE WSW.  AS THIS STORM REACHES THE MEM AREA...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT.

OTHERWISE...EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 M2/S2 EXTENDS ACROSS WW 128.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN SSWWD THROUGH
ERN TN TO FAR NRN LA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST EWD INTO WW 128
POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33339239 34549208 36258843 36658779 37458595 38388470
            38498397 36708457 34918783 33638859 33198971 33339239



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