[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091607
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-091730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH NRN AND NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 091607Z - 091730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL
KY...BUT NRN PORTION OF LINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL THROUGH
SERN KY AND NRN TN WHERE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW LATER
THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS CONTINUES THROUGH CNTRL KY AT 45-50
KT....BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN. WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER SRN IND WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TODAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STORMS MAY REDEVELOP/REORGANIZE ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THE MCS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS MAXIMIZED. THE
STRONGER FORCING ATTENDING THE MCV WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR...AND STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD SRN KY AND TN
MIGHT DELAY NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH S-CNTRL KY
AND N-CNTRL TN WHICH MIGHT BECOME A SOURCE OF INITIATION. VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 45-50 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ONCE STORMS
REDEVELOP.

..DIAL.. 04/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36218613 36958517 38298396 37958286 36948287 35858492
            36218613



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