[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091141
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...SRN IND...NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091141Z - 091345Z

...INCREASING SEVERE RISKS THROUGH THE MORNING/SEVERE TSTM WATCH
POSSIBLE...

A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO SRN
IL AT DAYBREAK.  NUMEROUS...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE PERSISTING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...ENHANCED BY A WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT FROM NEAR SALEM IL SEWD TO
JACKSON KY. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ROOTED ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER AND HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT AS HEATING BEGINS THIS MORNING...STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
INTO SRN IND AND WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS NRN MIDDLE TN.  LATEST
RAPID REFRESH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RUC AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING 4KM WRF-NMM IN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING STORMS INTO A
DAMAGING WIND/BOW ECHO POTENTIAL AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO HEAT.
MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING
WILL BEGIN AROUND 12Z NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS/SERN
IL...THEN SPREAD ESEWD INTO CNTRL KY/FAR NRN MIDDLE TN...ALONG/JUST
S OF THE FRONT 15-18Z.  HERE...RESERVOIR OF LOWER-MID 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL RESIDE BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND
DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

ONCE THE TSTMS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED AND SUSTAINED...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..RACY.. 04/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38878625 38548480 38178400 37838365 37468353 37028363
            36628395 36288485 36248589 36328661 36538766 36788880
            37488933 38798819 38878625


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