[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090723
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-090830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SW VA...WRN/CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110...

VALID 090723Z - 090830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110
CONTINUES.

...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
DIMINISHING...

WNWLY H9-H85 JET AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SWD AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERATION POINT TO THE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS HAS CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTED
SEWD INTO NERN TN AND WRN/CNTRL NC...BEYOND SEVERE WATCH 110.
INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-6.8 C PER KM AND WEAK AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION
MAY AID IN BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SVR THREAT IS WANING WITH TIME AND
PROBABILITY FOR NEW WATCHES/EXTENSIONS IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

..RACY.. 04/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37378102 36437975 35277910 35197987 35328081 35538165
            35898209 36498230 36878250 37108147 37378102



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