[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092139
TNZ000-ARZ000-092315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092139Z - 092315Z

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN...WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE AND COOL AIR TO THE N. CONTINUED HEATING AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INTERSECTING THE WARM FRONT.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 70 F ARE
GENERALLY NEEDED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THUS...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE LIMITED.  AREA VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE GENERAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2.
THUS...STORMS OVER CNTRL AND NRN AR MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS THEY
NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE,

..JEWELL.. 09/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34919172 35329309 35809317 36199220 36089122 35899032
            35868939 35578917 35158960 35009052 34919172


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