[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261354
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261354Z - 261500Z

SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH
NRN MS IS BEING MONITORED FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THREAT
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...BUT IF TRENDS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEEPEN OR INTENSIFY A WW WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. OTHERWISE...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
APPROACHES THIS REGION.

THIS MORNING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM MIDDLE TN
SWWD THROUGH NRN MS AND IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
ASCENT. THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
INDICATED...AND MORNING RAOB DATA FROM BIRMINGHAM AND NASHVILLE
INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 750 MB. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW BREAKS WITHIN A MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DIABATIC WARMING IN
ADDITION TO EWD ADVANCING ZONE OF ASCENT MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AT LEAST ONE CONVECTIVE
RESOLVING MODEL SUPPORTS PRE-FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION. IF CONVECTION
INDEED DOES DEEPEN/INTENSIFY...LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...LINE OF
STORMS FARTHER WEST IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT AND WILL APPROACH
THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AROUND 16Z.

..DIAL.. 10/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35068822 36508743 36498576 35708532 34508582 33778706
            33858867 35068822


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