[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141615
KYZ000-TNZ000-141715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TN THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141615Z - 141715Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL AND ERN KY. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SOON.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SERN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN AND WRN KY INTO
THE NWRN TIP OF TN. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
S-CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH N-CNTRL AND WRN TN. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH 80F
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH PRESENCE OF ONLY A
WEAK CAP...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER
DESTABILIZES. WHILE THE FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER REMAINS
MODEST...VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF AROUND 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37098426 36198541 35368744 35108918 35438970 36068923
            36878702 37808482 37098426


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