[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030633
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-030930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT MON MAY 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...ERN/SRN AL...EXTREME SERN
MS...EXTREME NWRN SC...SERN TN...SWRN NC...EXTREME WRN PANHANDLE OF
FL.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 030633Z - 030930Z

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTM CORES...CONTAINING 1-2 INCH/HOUR RAIN
RATES...ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN NEWD IN BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.  THIS
INCLUDES CORRIDOR FROM MOB-MGM-ATL...AS WELL AS STEEPER/RUGGED AND
RUNOFF-PRONE TERRAIN OF NRN GA AND NC/TN BORDER REGION.  ALTHOUGH
PRINCIPAL THREAT WILL REMAIN FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER OVER THIS REGION ALSO.
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THIS CORRIDOR ROUGHLY S OF I-20...BUT SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY CONDITIONAL AND TRANSIENT IN NATURE...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
PREDOMINANCE OF LINEAR FORCING.

NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF AL...SERN
MS...AND WRN GA FROM SFC-600 MB...PERHAPS HIGHER.  2.0-2.65 INCH PW
IS INDICATED FROM GPS DATA IN IMMEDIATE INFLOW SECTOR OF THIS BAND
OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL AL SWWD ACROSS MS/AL COAST...AND APPEARS
TO EXTEND IN NARROW RIBBON NEWD OVER SERN TN AND NWRN GA.  PW DOES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NERN GA AND
SC...BASED ON COMBINATION OF GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND TO MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN RATES AT LEAST AS FAR E AS SWRN
NC...N-CENTRAL GA.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR
COAST...TRANSITIONING TO 250-400 J/KG OVER SRN APPALACHIANS.
BEGINNING AROUND 09-10Z TIME FRAME...INITIAL 45-55 KT LLJ IS FCST TO
WEAKEN S/VEER SLIGHTLY ACROSS AL/WRN GA...BUT REMAIN
CONFLUENT...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHIFT NEWD
OVER CAROLINAS.  ACCORDINGLY...BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOVE
SFC MAY WEAKEN SLOWLY..ALONG WITH OVERALL PRECIP INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30748887 33498522 34708512 35948375 35828250 34758297
            33418383 30818722 30748887



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