[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020709
OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...SRN/CENTRAL IL...WRN/CENTRAL
KY...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...

VALID 020709Z - 020915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129 CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND COLD FRONT -- DISCUSSED MORE BELOW -- AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN IL AND SERN MO.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CHI AREA SWWD ACROSS ERN
FRINGES STL AREA...WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER SERN MO ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN TBN-CGI.  LOW SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN IL THROUGH
12Z WITH FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SERN MO.  DIFFUSE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR DAY'S CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER SRN MID
TN WNWWD ACROSS NWRN TN...WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH TO ITS N.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS TN AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS
SWRN KY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. BKN CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS -- WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS WRN KY.  MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ALONG NRN FRINGES OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING
TORNADO POTENTIAL.  FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SLOWLY FROM WRN TN NWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KY...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS FAST
AS TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
INFLOW OF WRN KY ACTIVITY TO BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE SFC AT SOME
NEBULOUSLY DEFINED TIME IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  VWP AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AVAILABLE FOR ANY SFC-BASED UPDRAFTS
WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM TO ITS N...INCLUDING SRN PORTIONS OF THIS WW.
FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH NWD AND NEWD
EXTENT ACROSS WW...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL EVEN FOR ELEVATED TSTMS SUCH AS
THOSE NOW EVIDENT IN CENTRAL KY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36638595 36678807 36468804 36428994 36618993 36639018
            36499022 36499114 37609096 38129005 38978955 39458906
            40368837 40488714 40598708 40578683 40788669 40708637
            40548638 40568583 40428586 40408521 40308521 40358482
            40038480 39998524 39818524 39778532 39238533 39168546
            38888549 38718594 38568586 38368604 38048593 38018599
            37828600 37798614 37588627 37578611 37368603 37348617
            37218605 36958618 36638595



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