[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020245
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 020245Z - 020315Z

NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY WITH AFFECTED WFOS
ACROSS SERN MO...SRN IL INTO FAR WRN KY AND PARTS OF WRN IND.

MID EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NWRN AR...WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH SERN MO TO SWRN IL
/JUST W OF BLV/ AND INTO NWRN IND.  AIR MASS OVER SERN MO TO SWRN IL
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NWD EXTENT ARE
TENDING TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY THUS FAR.

STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL
ADVECT HIGHER THETAE AIR MASS INTO THIS REGION AIDING IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH SERN MO INTO SRN IL
REACHING ERN IL/WRN IND BY 12Z.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36599143 38649015 39538921 40268757 40068682 38668701
            37398756 36498818 36599143


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