[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020219
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020219Z - 020315Z

STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS AND ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A NEW WW AT THIS TIME.

MODIFIED 00Z JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2/S2/.  THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCAPPED OVER MS WITH MLCAPE
AOA 2500 J/KG AND LOW LCLS.  MODIFIED 00Z BHM SOUNDING FOR 01Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MSL SUGGEST DIABATIC COOLING IS INCREASING THE
SBCINH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED THREAT FARTHER E INTO AL.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS EVENING TO THE S
AND E OF WW 127.

...NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN...
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN MAY WEAKEN THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THIS REGION ONCE IT TRACKS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SERN THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES 300-500 M2/S2.

...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MS...
FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL MS...THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...AND THIS REGION BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35918774 35688668 34568727 33178830 32618868 32298925
            32549012 33688989 34198847 35918774



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