[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020011
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 020011Z - 020115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

WW 125 HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA /ONE TIER OF COUNTIES/ FROM
WEST CENTRAL-NRN AR.

TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS FROM E TX/LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO AR/WRN TN HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE
2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS NERN TX TO SRN AR...WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS
ALSO OCCURRING WITH NWD EXTENT ALONG AND JUST N OF THIS WATCH.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH MOST ACTIVITY TENDING TO TRACK NWD...WHILE A FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRACK NEWD RESULTING IN A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.

FARTHER SSW INTO EAST CENTRAL-SERN TX...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
INTO THIS REGION WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SSWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY JUST TO
THE SSW OF WW 125 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH OVER
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL-SERN TX.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   36059005 36028977 34429047 33429111 32289221 31709346
            30939432 30779523 30949561 32089533 33659458 34739421
            35609346 36009256 36039170 36059005


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