[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011837
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-011930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011837Z - 011930Z

...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF AR/NRN LA
AND NERN TX...

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS HEATING CONSIDERABLY SOUTH-EAST OF PRIMARY
WIND SHIFT FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S.  BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS
GRADUALLY CHANGED CHARACTER OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH APPARENT
DEEPENING OF THERMALS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BREACHED.
MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM LZK...WITH WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS...SUPPORTS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.  LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUPPORTS A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS LA AND SRN AR BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD EASILY MATURE
AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
AIRMASS.  LATEST THINKING IS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INITIATE ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF AR...SUBSEQUENTLY EXPANDING INTO REGIONS OF NERN TX
AND NRN LA BY 21-22Z.  ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONGLY
FAVOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32809435 36349192 35808977 32219191 32809435



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