[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110508
ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO / W-CNTRL AND SWRN IL / FAR WRN KY / ERN AR
/ FAR WRN TN / NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 110508Z - 110645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 27 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.

A COMPLEX MIX OF MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WW AREA OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR SEGMENT WITH
EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL VORTICIES HAS OCCURRED TO THE W OF THE STL METRO
AREA WITH A MOTION OF 210/40-45 KT.  AN OBSERVED 50-55 KT SSELY LLJ
/PER STL VWP/ IS ENHANCING THE NWD FLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT AND
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE MS VALLEY...AND AS
SUCH...THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL EXIST WITH SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES NEWD.

FARTHER S...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY EVOLVED INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
QLCS FROM W OF CGI SSWWD TO JUST E OF PBF TO W OF MLU.  SYSTEM
MOTION WAS GENERALLY EWD AT 25-35 KT.  LINE MOTION IS LOCALLY FASTER
OVER SRN PRAIRIE AND ARKANSAS COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL AR WHERE STORM
MOTION/PROPAGATION IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE S OF AN EMBEDDED
MESOSCALE VORTEX.  AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY
REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST.  AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS...ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   33809188 35729143 37479115 38229167 39269129 39319008
            38578903 36528906 34529000 34179064 33829140 33809188



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