[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111738
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PORTION OF THE LWR OH/TN VALLEYS AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111738Z - 111945Z

THE NEED FOR WATCHES IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...A MID/UPPER
IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW IS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU.  AS THIS OCCURS... A
WEAKLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT DOWNSTREAM UPPER FLOW MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
 MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM...BUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL RELATIVELY
STEEP ASSOCIATED WITH UNDISTURBED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING
FROM THE PLATEAU REGION.  COUPLED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES...AND LOWER/MID
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS PROBABLY CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT LIFT ALONG CONSOLIDATING STORM OUTFLOWS
MAY SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH 21-22Z.
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

..KERR.. 06/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...
OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   36748668 38738722 39048879 39659017 40909047 41918821
            40758298 38048182 35648309 35008739 36748668


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