[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022154
KYZ000-TNZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246...

VALID 022154Z - 022300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO
S-CNTRL KY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF
WW 246.  A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN ORGANIZING LINEAR COLD POOL ACROSS THE
LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION DRAPING NEWD TO NEAR BWG.  THIS STRONG
TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTM LINEAR CLUSTER IS BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE MORE SEWD AS IT APPROACHES THE NW NASHVILLE METRO.
MID-LATE AFTN SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEG F
AMIDST MID 60 DEWPOINTS--YIELDING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG/
ALONG AND S OF THE LEADING TSTM GUST FRONT--CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS RESEMBLING A SEMI-ORGANIZED PULSE TSTM
REGIME.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TSTM THREAT DEVELOPING IS
WEAK LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MIDLEVEL FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH S EXTENT FROM NEAR
THE OH RIVER INTO TN.  THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT
WITH TIME IN MAINTAINING AN ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF MIDDLE TN.

..SMITH.. 06/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35878902 36638723 37438549 37378467 36768422 36088448
            35398544 35128714 35278849 35878902


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